Placing a bet is not necessarily gambling.
Gambling is the betting of money at unfavorable odds.
Wagering is the betting of money at favorable odds.
The History of Agile Adoptions
The sample size across the entire worldwide Agile experience since 2001 is at least 13 years of mostly-mandated Agile adoptions, worldwide! That might be 1,000 attempts a year for 13 years. (This was written in 2014….)
If Agile-practice mandates actually worked, we would be able to point with pride to thousands upon thousands of verifiable and unmitigated success stories.
So for example, even with just a 20% win rate, we might be able to identify as many as 2,600 legitimate successes.
WOW- TWO THOUSAND SIX HUNDRED success stories worldwide. Great … right?
If a mandate works 20 times out of 100 attempts, and a consent-based approach works 80 times per 100 attempts, both can be said to work SOME of the time.
A 20% win rate is nothing to brag about.
If a mandate will work in about 1 out of 5 attempts, in the long run, it is a gamble- a bet at very unfavorable odds. You are a “4 to 1 dog against.” 4 out of 5 attempts (on average) will fail in the long run.
Are those actually good numbers?
Are we actually happy with that?
The Open Agile Adoption assumes human engagement is essential. It replaces the mandate with an invitation. It is an approach that succeeds in greatly improving the odds for success in getting a rapid and lasting Agile adoption, by acknowledging the reality of imposed mandates and replacing those nasty mandates with opt-in invitations. The method includes leadership storytelling, the use of Open Space, deliberate experience design, game mechanics and more, all in service to the creation of rapid and more lasting Agile adoptions.
Open Agile Adoption (link)
The Ken Blanchard Companies revealed the shocking fact that up to 70 per cent of all change initiatives fail. The article:
Mastering the Art of Change (link)
Telling Them What They Want to Hear (link)
People, Then Practices (link)